March 01, 2004
Atlanta Braves - Hot Stove Heater
| QUICK STATS |
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Basics: History: 2003 Statistics: Team Hitting: Team Pitching: Team Leaders - Hitting: Team Leaders - Pitching: 2003 Attendance: 2003 Payroll: |
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The first in my series of Hot Stove Heaters: The Atlanta Braves 2003 Recap: Another year, another division title. The Braves, using offense instead of pitching this time, cruised into the playoffs once again for the 12th, yes, 12th straight time. If you want to put that into perspective, the Yankees just reached six in a row for the first time in the history of their franchise. Unfortunately for Braves fans though, the tomahawk chop once again was halted before Atlanta could make it to the World Series; this time by the failure of their potent offense to get a beat on the 1-2 punch of a dominant Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. Can the Braves make it 13 straight, or will this year be the one that is unlucky?
J.D. Drew: 162 game averages: .282/.377/.498, 26HR’s, 76 RBI’s, 16 SB’s, and 74 BB’s. Question is, as always, can he stay healthy? Eli Marrero: With Drew, came over from St. Louis in the five player trade that shipped Ray King, Adam Wainwright (#49 rated prospect by Baseball America), and Jason Marquis to the Cardinals. Marrero is the quintessential utility player; can play almost every position and can’t hit worth a damn(career .238/.295/.390). On a side note, I was at the game where Marrero broke his ankle. The weather was so bad that every ball hit in the air was basically either a home run or a foul ball; depended on how the wind caught it. One play I remember distinctly was a pop up in which Alou initially broke towards center, but then stopped, took a couple steps toward left, jogged a couple more steps towards left, took a couple steps forward, ran towards foul territory, and then watched the ball land in the 20th row; absolutely crazy. They finally cancelled the game in or around the 4th inning with the scoreboard reading something like 5,029 to 5,018. Ironically, the Cardinals put Marrero in for the oft injured Drew the half inning before he went down. John Thomson: Good stuff, bad teams, bad stadiums. Nice pick-up. Antonio Alfonseca: Ah, the 24 digit man. As long as Alfonseca doesn’t ever come in with runners on, the game tied, or with the heart of the order coming up, he is a great pitcher. If the Braves think they are going to turn Alfonseca into a great set-up man, they are gravely mistaken; no offense to the incredible Leo Mazzone. Armando Almanza: Well…he’s lefthanded. |
Eddie Perez: Veteran backstop coming off one of his most productive offensive seasons. Will help spell Estrada and soothe the clubhouse.
Gary Matthews Jr.: Speedy veteran will be a decent addition to the bench. Former Cubs going to the Braves this year: Matthews Jr. and Alfonseca. Former Braves going to the Cubs this year: Maddux and Mercker.
Off-Season Subtractions:
Gary Sheffield (signed with NYY): If you don’t know, you wouldn’t be reading this right now.
Javy Lopez (signed with BAL): See above.
Greg Maddux (signed with CHC): Best Braves pitcher of all-time, future Hall-of-Famer, and pseudo pitching coach. Losing Maddux’s knowledge of opposing batters alone weakens the Braves pitching staff significantly.
Robert Fick (signed with TB): See what happens when you act like an asshole in the playoffs? Fick’s poor defense and decent bat will easily be replaced if LaRoche pans out even marginally.
Vinny Castilla (signed with COL): Castilla ping-ponged his way back to Colorado’s rarified air during the off-season. His bat and glove will be missed by the Braves who will be forced to place, dare I say veteran, Mark DeRosa at the hot corner.
Darren Holmes (not signed): 2002 = Great, 2003...wait, I want to save this format for Franco. Umm, had a good 2002, but his shoulder limited him last year. Should be relatively easy to replace.
Matt Franco (signed with Lotte Marines): 2002 = Great, 2003 = Marrero. Franco put in a lot of time, but didn’t distinguish himself as anything more than a role player. For that reason, his position will easily be filled by another role player.
Darren Bragg (signed with NYY): Gary Matthews: .242/.324/.371, Darren Bragg: .258/.343/.382. Let’s call it a wash.
Henry Blanco (signed with MIN): I always admired his glove, he always admired by bat. Perez will fill in for Blanco just fine.
Roberto Hernandez (signed with PHI): Waved goodbye to a risky set-up man. Too bad they signed another one to replace him.
Ray King (traded to STL): Solid LOOGY. I think it will surprise people how much King will be missed.
Kent Mercker (signed with CHC): If he posts another year with a sub 2.00 ERA the Braves are going to be kicking themselves. Though, with his stats from the three previous years looking like this:
2000: 6.52 ERA
2001: Injured missed whole year
2002: 6.14ERA
It is hard to imagine he will.
Shane Reynolds (signed with ARI): I think the person that bought add space on Shane Reynold’s Baseball-Reference page sums it up best, “He deserved better.”
2004 Position Battles:
5th Starter: I guess the question is who isn't up for the 5th starter role. Currently the candidates for the job include Jaret Wright, Andy Pratt, Bubba Nelson, Jung Bong, and Trey Hodges.
Wright, who started every game of his 6 year career, except two, until last year, is most likely out of the running. His performance in the bullpen at the end of last year for Atlanta, and in the playoffs (where he has done his most impressive work throughout his career) will most likely regulate him to the role of a right handed set up man. A role that if he settles into properly should benefit him and the Braves greatly.
Pratt, a third round draft choice by the Texas Rangers in 1998, had an impressive 9.29K's/9 in Triple A Richmond last year, but his walks may keep him out of the 5th starter role.
Nelson, the Braves are giving him a shot, but his reduced strike out rate (though his fastball clocks in somewhere in the mid-90's) and his inflating walk rate might cost him. Bubba, #75 in Baseball America's most recent top 100 prospect list, might be what you call the "sleeper" pick here, but the Braves will probably give him another year of seasoning.
Bong, played decent in his 44 games on the big club last year, but may be in danger of being sent back down to Triple A due to an overstock of mediocrity on the back end of the staff. A new approach on the mound (switched his position on the rubber), injuries to Paul Byrd and Kevin Gryboski, and the undisputed allure of having another lefty on your team all work in his favor though.
Hodges, pitched well in the early part of the season last year for the Braves, but tailed off rather significantly towards the end until eventually being shut down due to a strained right elbow. Bobby is giving him, like all the others, a shot, but if you are a huge Hodges fan I don't think you are going to have to worry about getting to the game for the opening pitch. Just be there by the 6th.
If you noticed, I basically said all of them won't get it; well, somebody will and it will most likely be one of these 5. If push came to shove, I would say it would be Bong. Expect all of them, with the possible exception of Wright, to get time both in the pen and as starters.
Bullpen: Everybody mentioned above and Armando Almanza will be fighting for the remaining bullpen spots after Smoltz, Cunnane, and Alfonseca. Expect all of them to get action.
1B?: The Braves seem determined to give LaRoche his shot this year, after tearing up Triple A last year .295/.360/.466. But, with Julio Franco somehow still able to hit, don't be surprised if LaRoche takes some extended visits to the bench in the event of a slump.
Projected Lineup:
1. SS Rafael Furcal .292/.352/.443
2. 2B Marcus Giles .316/.390/.526
3. LF Chipper Jones .305/.402/.517
4. CF Andruw Jones .277/.338/.513
5. RF J.D. Drew .289/.374/.512
6. 3B Mark DeRosa .263/.316/.383
7. 1B Adam LaRoche .295/.360/.466 (72 games in AAA)
8. C Johnny Estrada .306/.359/.306 (16 games, 36 AB)
Projected Rotation:
1. Russ Ortiz
2. Mike Hampton
3. Horacio Ramirez
4. John Thomson
5. Pick'em
Bullpen:
Closer: John Smoltz
RHP: Will Cunnane
RHP: Antonio Alfonseca
RHP: Jaret Wright
LHP: Armando Almanza
Injuries:
Smoltz - You never like it when the doctors go in for surgery and find more than they bargained, but that is what happened in the case of John Smoltz. His 45 minute surgery turned into a 2-hour ordeal after the doctors found more damage than they thought they would find. Apparently it did the trick though as just today Smoltz declared that his arm feels stronger than it ever has in a career. A pretty scary thought coming from a guy who won 24 games in 1996, and posted a 1.12 ERA last year.
On another note, his injury might lead to the Braves using him MORE often in 2004. In Smoltz's mind his injury was caused, at least in part, due to the long layoffs he was subject to during weeks when a save situation did not present itself.
Byrd - After having Tommy John surgery last June it appears Byrd is on the fast track back to the Braves. On Wednesday he threw 60 pitches at 90% effort and Bobby Cox said Byrd is "way ahead" of schedule. Look for Byrd to return sometime in late May and immediately begin to make a push for the Braves 5th starter spot.
Gryboski - Still nursing an arm injury that will keep him out of early season exhibition games. Should be ready for the opening day.
The Farm:
As per the usual the Braves have a very talented farm system. The following five players made it into Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list:
#11 Andy Marte 3B
#27 Jeff Francoeur OF
#73 Adam LaRoche 1B
#75 Bubba Nelson RHP
#82 Dan Meyer LHP
With players like Jose Capellan, Macay Mcbride, Andy Pratt, and Blaine Boyer not far off, if the Braves do fall this year they will get right back up.
Points to Ponder:
Can Smoltz come back and be as dominant as he was last year?
Can the pitching staff improve enough to make up for the loss of offensive force?
Can Adam LaRoche have the year everybody wants him to have?
Breakout Year:
John Thomson. He pitched the first five years of his career in the pitching hell that is Colorado and then moved to Satan's backup joint in Texas. Somehow he still managed to come out with a career ERA+ of 102 and 4 years of sub 5.00 ERA's in Coors. Ask Mike Hampton how tough that is.
Moving to a team with a more pitcher-friendly ballpark, more defensively friendly outfielders, and arguably the best pitching coach in the league seems like just what the doctor ordered. Don't expect a Cy Young, but an ERA under 4.00 with a winning record is not out of the question.
Let-Down Year:
Alfonseca is the easy choice here, but the easy choice is no fun now is it?. So, in that spirit, in 2004 the Braves will have a let-down year from Marcus Giles. Everybody likes him. Everybody likes his grit, his approach to the game, and the fact that he didn't injure Prior for an extended period of time. That being said, is it rational to believe that Giles can repeat the year he had last year? Can he maintain a slugging percentage that was his highest since A ball in 1998? Can he maintain a batting average that was higher than his OBP in 68 games for Atlanta in 2002? The answer is probably not, put him down for .290/.350/.475. Not a year to be ashamed of, just not the type of year that he had last year, and not the type of year Braves fans are hoping for.
Predictions:
Well, the popular vote is to say that the Braves won't win the division this year, but as Atlanta's General Manager John Schuerholz says:
"The greatest winning streak in baseball is our winning 12 consecutive division titles...The second-longest streak is the number of years people have predicted our demise."
When a team loses the likes of Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez, and Greg Maddux it is only natural to think that the next year is going to be a rough one, but the Braves have done this before and they are ripe to do it again. If Drew can stay healthy and the pitching staff can pick it up a little, the Braves will be right there in the thick of things come the end of the year.
Other sites to check out for Braves Coverage:
News and Coverage:
Braves Buzz
No Pepper
Braves Homepage
ESPN Team Page
Tickets:
Braves Tickets
Braves Tickets
11:20 PM | Permalink
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Atlanta Braves - Hot Stove Heater
| QUICK STATS |
|---|
|
Basics: History: 2003 Statistics: Team Hitting: Team Pitching: Team Leaders - Hitting: Team Leaders - Pitching: 2003 Attendance: 2003 Payroll: |
|
The first in my series of Hot Stove Heaters: The Atlanta Braves 2003 Recap: Another year, another division title. The Braves, using offense instead of pitching this time, cruised into the playoffs once again for the 12th, yes, 12th straight time. If you want to put that into perspective, the Yankees just reached six in a row for the first time in the history of their franchise. Unfortunately for Braves fans though, the tomahawk chop once again was halted before Atlanta could make it to the World Series; this time by the failure of their potent offense to get a beat on the 1-2 punch of a dominant Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. Can the Braves make it 13 straight, or will this year be the one that is unlucky?
J.D. Drew: 162 game averages: .282/.377/.498, 26HR’s, 76 RBI’s, 16 SB’s, and 74 BB’s. Question is, as always, can he stay healthy? Eli Marrero: With Drew, came over from St. Louis in the five player trade that shipped Ray King, Adam Wainwright (#49 rated prospect by Baseball America), and Jason Marquis to the Cardinals. Marrero is the quintessential utility player; can play almost every position and can’t hit worth a damn(career .238/.295/.390). On a side note, I was at the game where Marrero broke his ankle. The weather was so bad that every ball hit in the air was basically either a home run or a foul ball; depended on how the wind caught it. One play I remember distinctly was a pop up in which Alou initially broke towards center, but then stopped, took a couple steps toward left, jogged a couple more steps towards left, took a couple steps forward, ran towards foul territory, and then watched the ball land in the 20th row; absolutely crazy. They finally cancelled the game in or around the 4th inning with the scoreboard reading something like 5,029 to 5,018. Ironically, the Cardinals put Marrero in for the oft injured Drew the half inning before he went down. John Thomson: Good stuff, bad teams, bad stadiums. Nice pick-up. Antonio Alfonseca: Ah, the 24 digit man. As long as Alfonseca doesn’t ever come in with runners on, the game tied, or with the heart of the order coming up, he is a great pitcher. If the Braves think they are going to turn Alfonseca into a great set-up man, they are gravely mistaken; no offense to the incredible Leo Mazzone. Armando Almanza: Well…he’s lefthanded. |
Eddie Perez: Veteran backstop coming off one of his most productive offensive seasons. Will help spell Estrada and soothe the clubhouse.
Gary Matthews Jr.: Speedy veteran will be a decent addition to the bench. Former Cubs going to the Braves this year: Matthews Jr. and Alfonseca. Former Braves going to the Cubs this year: Maddux and Mercker.
Off-Season Subtractions:
Gary Sheffield (signed with NYY): If you don’t know, you wouldn’t be reading this right now.
Javy Lopez (signed with BAL): See above.
Greg Maddux (signed with CHC): Best Braves pitcher of all-time, future Hall-of-Famer, and pseudo pitching coach. Losing Maddux’s knowledge of opposing batters alone weakens the Braves pitching staff significantly.
Robert Fick (signed with TB): See what happens when you act like an asshole in the playoffs? Fick’s poor defense and decent bat will easily be replaced if LaRoche pans out even marginally.
Vinny Castilla (signed with COL): Castilla ping-ponged his way back to Colorado’s rarified air during the off-season. His bat and glove will be missed by the Braves who will be forced to place, dare I say veteran, Mark DeRosa at the hot corner.
Darren Holmes (not signed): 2002 = Great, 2003...wait, I want to save this format for Franco. Umm, had a good 2002, but his shoulder limited him last year. Should be relatively easy to replace.
Matt Franco (signed with Lotte Marines): 2002 = Great, 2003 = Marrero. Franco put in a lot of time, but didn’t distinguish himself as anything more than a role player. For that reason, his position will easily be filled by another role player.
Darren Bragg (signed with NYY): Gary Matthews: .242/.324/.371, Darren Bragg: .258/.343/.382. Let’s call it a wash.
Henry Blanco (signed with MIN): I always admired his glove, he always admired by bat. Perez will fill in for Blanco just fine.
Roberto Hernandez (signed with PHI): Waved goodbye to a risky set-up man. Too bad they signed another one to replace him.
Ray King (traded to STL): Solid LOOGY. I think it will surprise people how much King will be missed.
Kent Mercker (signed with CHC): If he posts another year with a sub 2.00 ERA the Braves are going to be kicking themselves. Though, with his stats from the three previous years looking like this:
2000: 6.52 ERA
2001: Injured missed whole year
2002: 6.14ERA
It is hard to imagine he will.
Shane Reynolds (signed with ARI): I think the person that bought add space on Shane Reynold’s Baseball-Reference page sums it up best, “He deserved better.”
2004 Position Battles:
5th Starter: I guess the question is who isn't up for the 5th starter role. Currently the candidates for the job include Jaret Wright, Andy Pratt, Bubba Nelson, Jung Bong, and Trey Hodges.
Wright, who started every game of his 6 year career, except two, until last year, is most likely out of the running. His performance in the bullpen at the end of last year for Atlanta, and in the playoffs (where he has done his most impressive work throughout his career) will most likely regulate him to the role of a right handed set up man. A role that if he settles into properly should benefit him and the Braves greatly.
Pratt, a third round draft choice by the Texas Rangers in 1998, had an impressive 9.29K's/9 in Triple A Richmond last year, but his walks may keep him out of the 5th starter role.
Nelson, the Braves are giving him a shot, but his reduced strike out rate (though his fastball clocks in somewhere in the mid-90's) and his inflating walk rate might cost him. Bubba, #75 in Baseball America's most recent top 100 prospect list, might be what you call the "sleeper" pick here, but the Braves will probably give him another year of seasoning.
Bong, played decent in his 44 games on the big club last year, but may be in danger of being sent back down to Triple A due to an overstock of mediocrity on the back end of the staff. A new approach on the mound (switched his position on the rubber), injuries to Paul Byrd and Kevin Gryboski, and the undisputed allure of having another lefty on your team all work in his favor though.
Hodges, pitched well in the early part of the season last year for the Braves, but tailed off rather significantly towards the end until eventually being shut down due to a strained right elbow. Bobby is giving him, like all the others, a shot, but if you are a huge Hodges fan I don't think you are going to have to worry about getting to the game for the opening pitch. Just be there by the 6th.
If you noticed, I basically said all of them won't get it; well, somebody will and it will most likely be one of these 5. If push came to shove, I would say it would be Bong. Expect all of them, with the possible exception of Wright, to get time both in the pen and as starters.
Bullpen: Everybody mentioned above and Armando Almanza will be fighting for the remaining bullpen spots after Smoltz, Cunnane, and Alfonseca. Expect all of them to get action.
1B?: The Braves seem determined to give LaRoche his shot this year, after tearing up Triple A last year .295/.360/.466. But, with Julio Franco somehow still able to hit, don't be surprised if LaRoche takes some extended visits to the bench in the event of a slump.
Projected Lineup:
1. SS Rafael Furcal .292/.352/.443
2. 2B Marcus Giles .316/.390/.526
3. LF Chipper Jones .305/.402/.517
4. CF Andruw Jones .277/.338/.513
5. RF J.D. Drew .289/.374/.512
6. 3B Mark DeRosa .263/.316/.383
7. 1B Adam LaRoche .295/.360/.466 (72 games in AAA)
8. C Johnny Estrada .306/.359/.306 (16 games, 36 AB)
Projected Rotation:
1. Russ Ortiz
2. Mike Hampton
3. Horacio Ramirez
4. John Thomson
5. Pick'em
Bullpen:
Closer: John Smoltz
RHP: Will Cunnane
RHP: Antonio Alfonseca
RHP: Jaret Wright
LHP: Armando Almanza
Injuries:
Smoltz - You never like it when the doctors go in for surgery and find more than they bargained, but that is what happened in the case of John Smoltz. His 45 minute surgery turned into a 2-hour ordeal after the doctors found more damage than they thought they would find. Apparently it did the trick though as just today Smoltz declared that his arm feels stronger than it ever has in a career. A pretty scary thought coming from a guy who won 24 games in 1996, and posted a 1.12 ERA last year.
On another note, his injury might lead to the Braves using him MORE often in 2004. In Smoltz's mind his injury was caused, at least in part, due to the long layoffs he was subject to during weeks when a save situation did not present itself.
Byrd - After having Tommy John surgery last June it appears Byrd is on the fast track back to the Braves. On Wednesday he threw 60 pitches at 90% effort and Bobby Cox said Byrd is "way ahead" of schedule. Look for Byrd to return sometime in late May and immediately begin to make a push for the Braves 5th starter spot.
Gryboski - Still nursing an arm injury that will keep him out of early season exhibition games. Should be ready for the opening day.
The Farm:
As per the usual the Braves have a very talented farm system. The following five players made it into Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list:
#11 Andy Marte 3B
#27 Jeff Francoeur OF
#73 Adam LaRoche 1B
#75 Bubba Nelson RHP
#82 Dan Meyer LHP
With players like Jose Capellan, Macay Mcbride, Andy Pratt, and Blaine Boyer not far off, if the Braves do fall this year they will get right back up.
Points to Ponder:
Can Smoltz come back and be as dominant as he was last year?
Can the pitching staff improve enough to make up for the loss of offensive force?
Can Adam LaRoche have the year everybody wants him to have?
Breakout Year:
John Thomson. He pitched the first five years of his career in the pitching hell that is Colorado and then moved to Satan's backup joint in Texas. Somehow he still managed to come out with a career ERA+ of 102 and 4 years of sub 5.00 ERA's in Coors. Ask Mike Hampton how tough that is.
Moving to a team with a more pitcher-friendly ballpark, more defensively friendly outfielders, and arguably the best pitching coach in the league seems like just what the doctor ordered. Don't expect a Cy Young, but an ERA under 4.00 with a winning record is not out of the question.
Let-Down Year:
Alfonseca is the easy choice here, but the easy choice is no fun now is it?. So, in that spirit, in 2004 the Braves will have a let-down year from Marcus Giles. Everybody likes him. Everybody likes his grit, his approach to the game, and the fact that he didn't injure Prior for an extended period of time. That being said, is it rational to believe that Giles can repeat the year he had last year? Can he maintain a slugging percentage that was his highest since A ball in 1998? Can he maintain a batting average that was higher than his OBP in 68 games for Atlanta in 2002? The answer is probably not, put him down for .290/.350/.475. Not a year to be ashamed of, just not the type of year that he had last year, and not the type of year Braves fans are hoping for.
Predictions:
Well, the popular vote is to say that the Braves won't win the division this year, but as Atlanta's General Manager John Schuerholz says:
"The greatest winning streak in baseball is our winning 12 consecutive division titles...The second-longest streak is the number of years people have predicted our demise."
When a team loses the likes of Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez, and Greg Maddux it is only natural to think that the next year is going to be a rough one, but the Braves have done this before and they are ripe to do it again. If Drew can stay healthy and the pitching staff can pick it up a little, the Braves will be right there in the thick of things come the end of the year.
Other sites to check out for Braves Coverage:
News and Coverage:
Braves Buzz
No Pepper
Braves Homepage
ESPN Team Page
Tickets:
Braves Tickets
Braves Tickets
11:20 PM | Permalink
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Hot Stove Heaters - Rooftop Style
Since it is 11:07 and I just want to go to bed, I will make this quick.
In an effort to prepare for my upcoming Fantasy Draft, try my hand at some new HTML tricks, and waste countless hours, all at the same time, I have decided to try to create a Hot Stove Heater (name stolen from ESPN) for each team in the National League. The order of release will be as follows:
NL East - Alphabetically
NL West - Alphabetically
NL Central - Alphabetically (except the Cubs, who go last)
So, that means that the Atlanta Braves are first. If you like it, please post a comment encouraging me to continue. If you hate it, please post a comment encouraging me to stop wasting my time.
Goodnight everyone....
11:15 PM | Permalink
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| TrackBack
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Hot Stove Heaters - Rooftop Style
Since it is 11:07 and I just want to go to bed, I will make this quick.
In an effort to prepare for my upcoming Fantasy Draft, try my hand at some new HTML tricks, and waste countless hours, all at the same time, I have decided to try to create a Hot Stove Heater (name stolen from ESPN) for each team in the National League. The order of release will be as follows:
NL East - Alphabetically
NL West - Alphabetically
NL Central - Alphabetically (except the Cubs, who go last)
So, that means that the Atlanta Braves are first. If you like it, please post a comment encouraging me to continue. If you hate it, please post a comment encouraging me to stop wasting my time.
Goodnight everyone....
11:15 PM | Permalink
| Comments (0)
| TrackBack
| Visit the new Rooftop Report
